See also Part One and Part Two.
Next part of the question: as a hitter, how does Rice rate compared with his peers? That is, where does he rank as a hitter among the other players during his time. Does he deserve a reputation as the most feared hitter of his time?
As an objective measure of hitting, let's try using Runs Created. Bill James introduced this measure many years ago, and even used it in his analysis of the 1978 MVP vote. The justification for using RC is that, at a team level, it is a reasonably good predictor for runs scored. There are a number of variations, but I choose the simplest - which has the advantage that it looks only at hitting, which is what we are really interested in, without considering stolen bases, GIDP, or other distractions.
In its simple form
RC
= ( Times on base ) * ( Total Bases ) / ( Plate Appearances )
= ( H + W ) * ( H + 2B + 2 * 3B + 3*HR) / ( AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH )
This probably isn't the fairest way to treat HBP, and despite my best efforts I can't get the numbers to match the data at Baseball Primer, not exactly, but there are limits to the precision we should expect from so primitive a tool.
So there is a metric for "how good?" To settle "When?", we simply look at Rice's career. 1974 is a mere cup of coffee, and after 1986 Rice was undistinguished as a hitter, so we'll crop the survey with the 12 years in the middle [1975-1986]
The best hitting season during that period is the 1977 MVP performance of Rod Carew - 239 Hits, 69 BB, 351 Total Bases in 694 plate appearances. Mattingly's 1986 campaign is next, then Rice in 1978. Not far behind on the charts are Rice's 1977 and 1979 campaigns. That's Rice's third best season ahead of everybody else's second best.
Rice is also the first player to put his 4th season on the list, and his 5th. After that, the other heavies show up. Brett, Murray, and Schmidt all have seasons that match up with Rice's top 6,7, and 8.
Let's stack Schmidt and Rice together.
3 1978 Rice 147
6 1977 Rice 139
8 1979 Rice 138
20 1980 Schmidt 129
39 1983 Rice 121
48 1977 Schmidt 118
60 1979 Schmidt 116
69 1986 Rice 114
71 1986 Schmidt 114
85 1982 Schmidt 111
98 1983 Schmidt 110
105 1976 Schmidt 109
117 1985 Schmidt 108
129 1984 Schmidt 106
141 1975 Schmidt 105
167 1982 Rice 102
210 1984 Rice 98
224 1981 Schmidt 97
272 1975 Rice 94
Now, one of these pictures says "feared hitter for 10 years", and it isn't Rice.
This is not, of course, a criticism of Rice's hitting talent - the Hall of Fame would be a broom closet if "better hitter than Schmidt" was a requirement for enshrinement. Brett, Murray Schmidt is excellent company for a hitter. But it should raise questions about the claim that Rice was the best hitter of his time.
There's just one adjustment to make: context. Rice played in friendly Fenway, a ballpark that saw more than its fair share of runs each season. More runs per season means more runs per game means more runs per win. In other words, though Rice was creating as many runs as these other hitters, he wasn't creating as many wins.
I use a simple measure to define context - league average scoring * batter park effect, which itself is a smearing of the ratio of runs per game for each team, at home and away. When we look, we find that 1977 Fenway was the best place to hit during the period we are considering, 1979 Fenway second.
So performance is now ranked by (runs created) / (context). Examined this way, Rice's 1978 season ranks 7th - Foster, Parker, Yount, and Winfield (who played in a graveyard in 1979).
By the time Rice gets a third seaon on the list, Guerrero, Mattingly, Murphy, Cooper, and Parker are already there. Top five seasons? Schmidt already has nine better seasons on the board - Rice is in a pack with Garvey, Parker, and Cruz. Keith Hernandez sneaks in a 7th season before Rice's 6th.
Here's how Rice vs Hernandez looks:
7 1978 Rice 15.8 8 1979 Hernandez 15.3 32 1980 Hernandez 14.2 41 1979 Rice 14.0 53 1977 Rice 13.7 116 1983 Rice 12.6 125 1984 Hernandez 12.5 131 1986 Rice 12.4 134 1986 Hernandez 12.3 148 1985 Hernandez 12.2 229 1982 Hernandez 11.4 246 1977 Hernandez 11.2 303 1982 Rice 10.8
Excluded from the survey was Hernandez's 1983 season, where he did well splitting time between St. Louis and New York.
Rice may have been the most feared hitter around, but the evidence begins to suggest that the difference between Rice and the other top hitters in the league was Fenway park, rather than talent.
April 20, 2004 12:47 AM
| TrackBack