How much does baserunning matter in run scoring?
It may seem that way, especially if one looks at runs scored as a function of times on base. Are the lumbering sluggers clogging the base paths, and failing to score as often as they should? Does this suggest that OBP overrates these players, crediting them for scoring more often than they do?
There are a few obvious sources of noise that should be considered when addressing the question. The probability of scoring is certain to be dependent on the number of outs, and not all runners will see the same distribution - leadoff hitters get more than their fair share of chances to reach base with no outs. Similarly, the probability of scoring must be dependent on the hitters behind a player in the lineup.
The purpose of the study is to get a sense of how large this noise is relative to the signal, to attempt to control for it, and to get some sense of how many runs a player should score, given the context he is playing in. From there, it may be possible to put an estimate on the scoring variation caused by running skills.
May 8, 2004 5:21 PM
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