Keeping in mind that I don't actually know anything:
Smarty Jones' victory in the Preakness was very impressive and he's going to get blown off the track in the Belmont.
Here's why: His time in the Preakness is not impressive--two and a fifth seconds off the record puts him about in the middle of the pack among winners--and his record-setting lead means that he's facing slow horses. His time in the Derby, on a terrible track, was also not especially impressive.
And he's never really faced the horse who's consider the predominant closer of the year, The Cliff's Edge. The Derby's sloppy track strongly disfavored closers, and The Cliff's Edge lost two shoes in the race on top of that, causing a foot problem that kept him out of the Preakness.
And the Belmont is an absolute meatgrinder of a race. Three-year-olds have very little experience over a mile, which is why the two-year-old champion usually does so badly in the 1 1/4 mile Derby. And the Belmont is 1 1/2 miles. Speed horses burn out; closers have to struggle not to fall so far back that they don't have the juice to close in the stretch.
Unless Smarty Jones really is Seattle Slew in disguise, I hate to say it, but I expect him to run the Belmont like it's the Derby or the Preakness, second or third place until the back turn, move for the front, and burn out a furlong and a half before the finish line when he gets a strong challenge from a closer.
Now, The Cliff's Edge isn't a lock--he's still fairly untested and may not have the experience to run the kind of Belmont he'll need, but Rock Hard Ten, Edginton, or one of the other Preakness contenders could be there to take up the slack.
I have to disagree. Smarty Jones' Preakness romp was the most impressive win in a stakes race this year. The great equalizer for rating a horses's individual performance in a race is the speed figure. Smarty Jones earned a Beyer speed figure of 118 (the second best such number this year by any horse of any age in all the races run this year). His steadily improving figures also indicate that this is likely not a fluke. The reason he will win the Belmont is this: there are no other 3 year old horses at this point in the year that are at the same level as Smarty Jones. The Cliff's Edge has an abcess in his right front (I think) foot and even if he goes in the Belmont he won't be 100%.
Smarty Jones simply hasn't struggled in each race. Rock Hard Ten actually managed to lose ground in stretch as much as S.J. pushed out in front.
What will be unfortunate is if the critics knock a Smarty Jones triple crown by saying that there was no real competition. To that I say, "Do you remember who finished second to Secretariat? I can't."
If he turns out to win the Belmont as easily as he took the Preakness, I'll be as delighted as anybody. A Triple Crown winner would be an absolute joy regardless of the circumstances.
All I'm saying is that I'm not convinced enough to put my money on him in three weeks. Six out of the last eight years, IIRC, we've had colts with two wins out of three fail in the New York Meatgrinder. Maybe he does have the wind for it, and three weeks instead of two will help, but I'm just going to be skeptical until I see it.
What's Whitney say?
I happen to know a thing or three about horse racing. I said to my brother this year that there wouldn't be a triple crown winner this year because there were some fast horses in the Derby but they didn't have the endurance to do the others races. My pick in the Derby was actually leading for most of the race. My mom who doesn't know anything about the sport said to me "It looks like you were right." And I said, because I have to show how clever I am, "Not if Smarty Jones make s a move within the next couple seconds." And he did. And he won. This rarely happens. Jockeys are stupid and I used to win by knowing which jockeys weren't stupid. THe guy riding Smarty appears to know what he's doing.
Just as I'm not convinced enough to bet on him, I'm not necessarily convinced enough to bet against him, either. I sure wouldn't put $2 on him to win at the below-even odds he's likely to go off at on June 5th. I'd put $2 against 2-1 that he doesn't finish in the money, though.