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How “Affecting Probability” Works

posted by Michael at 02:16 PM, October 17, 2004 | Filed under : Useful Player Knowledge | Comments and Followups

Probability manipulation involves a minor side affect of shadow-walking. An initiate with at least two points in Pattern can arrange for certain results to happen. Powerful initiates can make highly improbable events happen, such as making a specific set of winning lottery numbers coming up. The difficulty is based on specificity and likelihood. If an event is too general or is a summation of too many other probabilities, it is difficult to affect. This can also be the case with events that are too far in the future. In addition to events that are too far in the future to manipulate, events that have already taken place are generally not subject to probability manipulation. We had a case early on where someone wanted to manipulate probability to make a tent flame-proof. We talked with the player in question and told her that she could manipulate probability to say that the tent would not catch on fire, but not that six months ago someone fireproofed this tent. It turns out that she had a partial success and helped contain the fire, but it wasn’t totally successful. Some things can’t be manipulated because the character doesn’t know something about the circumstances. The GMs will let you know if this is the case. Some probabilities cannot be manipulated because of the influence of another power. Flora’s failure to keep her maid from opening the door in 9PIA fits this category. Some probabilities cannot be manipulated because the result is not possible. You cannot conjure a living King Oberon or the Jewel Of Judgement, or even a living King Random. The mechanics for manipulating probability are based on the Magic Formula, as are most power-based outcome determinations.

Follow up: the trackback URL for this entry is: http://www.whiterose.org/MT/mt-tb.cgi/4478

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