A Perfectly Cromulent Blog

I'd like to shank the Academy...

I know, I know...you hate awards shows. The annual parades of self-congratulation and in-jokes makes you want to puke blood, yet like sailors of old you're drawn, powerless, to the siren's glow of the TV every winter.

We're all aware that the Golden Globes are a sham (only a third of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are actual press, and many aren't even foreign), but everyone wants to see how stoned Jack Nicholson will get, or who's in danger of falling out of her dress (and as a viewer, I'd like to add my thanks to Mary Louise Parker's newborn child for her natural, uh, augmentation). The Independent Spirit Awards are a little better, with the smugness of those in attendance only barely offset by how obnoxiously drunk many of them get. As for the Oscars...well, I have my own love-hate relationship with that bloated strokefest. It's on in my house every year, but each year I find more ways to avoid actually watching it.

Still, this is a great time for awards show junkies: you've got the Globes, the Razzie nominations, and the Oscar nominations. It's rather sad that most years I've found myself seeing more of the Razzie films than the Academy Award nominated ones, but that just means my soul probably isn't as black as yours.

Of course, this would be the year that rule didn't apply. I can proudly say I have yet to see Gigli (9 nominations), Cat in the Hat (8), From Justin to Kelly (8), or Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle (8). Perhaps this is a turning point, or maybe the grim specter of Death is convincing me not to waste my life watching shitty Dr. Seuss remakes.

Then there are the Oscars. To no one's surprise, Return of the King pulled in a ton of nominations. I stand by my prediction, made after Fellowship was released, that RotK will land Best Picture as a reward to Jackson for the entire trilogy. The only other film I can see making a run for it is Mystic River.

I expect that whichever film - RotK or Mystic River - wins Best Picture, the other one will win Best Director. If not, RotK wins both. And if that isn't confusing enough, the rest of my early predictions follow.

Best Original Score, Original Song, Visual Effects, Make-Up, Editing, and Art Direction go to RotK. American Splendor nabs Best Adapted Screenplay, and Last Samurai picks up its only win with Best Costume Design.

How the hell did Master and Commander come away with 10 nominations? It was good, but not that good...not Driving Miss Daisy good. It'll win Best Sound Editing, but only because Pirates of the Caribbean shouldn't win anything, and because Finding Nemo's foley guys didn't have to clean up the disturbing noise caused by a horde of chafing Australians.

Best Actor - Bill Murray. Penn's the serious auteur, but I'm a Murray fan. As far as Ben Kingsley goes...nobody saw House of Sand and Fog (and how do you top playing Gandhi anyway?), and Jude Law will have years to win his award.

Anyone impressed with Depp's performance should check out my Dad after a couple bottles of wine.

Best Actress - While I applaud the Academy for throwing their annual obscurity sop to Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), there's no way Charlize Theron doesn't win this

Best Supporting Actor - Since I think Murray's going to win Best Actor (and he deserves it for his Golden Globes speech alone), I'll give this one to Tim Robbins

Best Supporting Actress - The Academy's traditional weird ass temperament when it comes to this category means I have to go with Shohreh Aghdashloo (lets see Jack Palance pronounce that), though conventional wisdom is for Renee Zellweger

Best Foreign Language Film - The Barbarian Invasions

Best Animated Film - Oh please: Finding Nemo

Best Original Screenplay - Lost in Translation

Those are my early guesses. I can't see much changing in the next month, but I'm sure we'll revisit this topic as the awards ceremony gets closer.

And I'm desperately hoping they've already scheduled Ben and J-Lo as co-presenters.