The nominations are in, and this year's crop of hopefuls seem to represent a further disconnect not just between popular opinion (big surprise) but critical viewpoints as well (the horror).
For starters, 13 nominations for Benjamin Button? I can't see this winning anything bigger than art direction, much less running the table a la Silence of the Lambs or Chicago, but it's taking up some valuable Best Picture space.
I'm a little surprised Clint didn't get lobbed a nom for his farewell acting performance, but maybe everyone figured he'd gotten enough love in recent years. I'm...mildly surprised The Dark Knight didn't get a Best Picture nomination, but not really. AMPAS is steadfast in its general disregard for box performance, even when the ratings for the awards ceremony telecast have been in the tank for a decade. No, the big shockers for me were as follows:
- No "The Wrestler" for Best Song. I thought I'd be talking about it being a lock to win, not how it got shut out entirely. And two from Slumdog Millionaire?
- No The Wrestler for Best Picture. The first casualty of the Academy's inexplicable love affair with Button. Or maybe they were afraid of a repeat of the dread Aronofsky middle finger maneuver.
- Nada for Revolutionary Road. I guess a little American Beauty goes a long way.
- Frozen River frozen out. Okay, this wasn't really a shocker. Nobody saw it, which is a shame. I'm glad Melissa Leo's great performance was recognized, though.
Hollywood's autofellatio festival commences in a month. Here's who'll win:
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Slumdog's the sentimental favorite, but the Academy isn't the Hollywood Foreign Press. All the same, it has to be considered one of the top contenders. The Reader is Holocaust Oscar bait, and Frost/Nixon is too narrowly focused. Milk, however, is the kind of movie the Academy loves.
The Winnah: Who wants to be a Millionaire? Then again, Forrest Gump won in '94, and Button is the same damn movie.
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's great to see a character actor like Jenkins getting some love, but he's the longest shot here. Penn might have had a chance had he not won a few years ago. Besides, there's only one great story in this category, and it ain't Pitt's snub of Ryan Seacrest at the Golden Globes.
The Winnah: Mickey will be the second Rourke honored that night, assuming the In Memoriam segment with Ricardo Montalban airs beforehand.
And yes, I know it's spelled "Roarke."
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
If these awards actually meant something, I'd be a lot more annoyed that Leo hasn't got a hope in hell. Streep and Jolie were solid, the latter surprisingly so, and Hathaway finally showed some decent dramatic chops.
The Winnah: In spite of all that, it'll be seven times a charm for Winslet, mostly because Sally Hawkins didn't get nominated following her Golden Globes win.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Any other year, this would be a great category. Brolin continued to impress, Downey Jr. pulled off what I thought would be the Mother of All Bad Ideas, and Shannon - another great character actor - stood out (and that's without Colin Farrell getting a sniff). And none of it will matter.
The Winnah: Rumor is that gambling sites won't even be letting people take bets on Ledger, and the odds could open at 1-10.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Finally, a challenging category. Early buzz is for Cruz and Davis, with the latter likely to be the only person honored from the Doubt cast, or will Adams split the vote?
The Winnah: Cruz, which will have the deleterious effect of encouraging Woody Allen to keep making movies.
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
It doesn't always happen, but this year each of the Best Pictures is represented 1:1 here. Meaning Boyle should come away with it, though Fincher or Van Sant could make some noise later.
The Winnah: Boyle, and we can all pretend it was for 28 Days Later.
Best Original Screenplay
Courtney Hunt Frozen River
Mike Leigh Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black Milk
Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter Wall E
The screenplay categories are traditionally where the Academy feels like it can loosen up (and I like how there's maybe 30 minutes of dialogue in Wall*E and it still got nominated). I'd be happy with either Hunt or McDonagh.
The Winnah: Which means Leigh's going to win it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Please not Benjamin Button. Please not Benjamin Button. Please not Benjamin Button.
The Winnah: Beaufoy, because I don't want Ricky Gervais to be 100% right about Holocaust movies and transcribing interviews is just lazy. Step it up, Morgan!
This is the first time in the last 10 years that I have not seen a single movie up for Best Picture. In fact, the only two movies I have seen are the Dark Knight and Tropic Thunder. Egads, I am just like seadogs.
Okay, that’s no completely true. I did also see “In Bruges”.
This is the first time in the last 10 years that I have not seen a single movie up for Best Picture. In fact, the only two movies I have seen are the Dark Knight and Tropic Thunder. Egads, I am way behind!